Hydrogen Mobility

H2-Scale is a research and market-development initiative at the Universität Hamburg, led by Prof. Dr. Robi Banerjee at the Hamburg Observatory. The project aims to establish an economically viable, large-scale hydrogen market in Germany by integrating all value chain stages — production, distribution, refueling, vehicles, and operations. It operates as a fully integrated vertical platform: producing green hydrogen from surplus renewable energy, installing H2 refueling stations directly at logistics company sites, and supplying fuel cell vans under flexible leasing and pay-per-kilometer models, with service, maintenance, and fuel costs fully included. By deploying at scale across vehicles, electrolysers, and station infrastructure simultaneously, H2-Scale aims to unlock the economies of scale needed to compete with battery-electric alternatives. The concept is designed to pilot with logistics companies operating light commercial vehicle fleets (vans up to 3.5t), with refueling infrastructure installed directly at their logistics hubs.

My role within this project was to build a market analysis across the ecosystem's three key stakeholders: logistics companies, OEMs, and HRS operators.

What crystallized throughout this project is that, against current alternatives such as electric energy, the demand for hydrogen-powered vehicles falls well below economically viable levels.

With the current third-party structure most logistics companies have adopted, the integration of one central fueling station, no matter the fuel source, is not profitable. Furthermore, over the course of the last few years, electric power stations have built out a reliable network throughout Germany, making the effort of pushing a new alternative fueling source obsolete, especially when considering that the cost per refueling is cheaper when using electricity.

The more interesting discovery is that while for the longest time the industry's main opposition to electric energy was its limitation on how far a single charge could take a vehicle, hydrogen was hailed as the solution for longer-distance driving. In recent times, however, the limitation has shifted from the automobile's limitation toward human shortcomings in relation to mandated driver rest breaks, as stated by one Sustainability Implementation manager at a major German logistics provider.

The three main factors that make hydrogen refueling obsolete in this concrete example of the urban parcel delivery ecosystem are cost, the lack of infrastructure maturity, and emissions. The two factors it does tackle well, range and refueling time, cannot, at this stage, outweigh its shortcomings.

While at first glance it seems like a complete loss for the hydrogen-powered vehicle, it is important to mention that during my interviews, a possible silver lining appeared. The use of hydrogen-powered vehicles in off-road or hard-to-reach industrial areas, for industries such as coal mining or agriculture, could be a well-paired match, as it is more sustainable than traditional fossil fuels and able to function without limitations in terrain where traditional electric vehicles, due to the lack of infrastructure, fail to survive.